We forecast total winter expenditures for all uses for each primary heating fuel, not just the portion attributable to heating. To develop our forecast household expenditures for natural gas, heating oil, electricity, and propane in this report, we group households by their primary space heating fuel. We use our Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) as a baseline to estimate average energy consumption during the winter in each region. Each fuel also has its own market structure, physical infrastructure, regulations, and limitations that can affect the connection between wholesale and retail market events. Fuel expenditures for individual households depend on the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, along with thermostat settings and weather conditions. The average household winter energy expenditures discussed in this supplement are broad measures for comparing recent winters and reflect energy expenditures for all uses, not just heating. NOAA’s expectation is a key input to our energy consumption forecast and contributes to our expectation of increases in winter energy consumption.įor this outlook, we define the winter heating season as October through March. Our expectation of a colder winter is based on forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). regions and fuels for this winter (see Winter Fuels Outlook table).īackground. households that heat primarily with heating oil will spend 43% more-59% more in a colder winter and 30% more in a warmer winter.įorecast expenditures can also vary significantly across U.S. households that heat primarily with propane will spend 54% more-94% more in a colder winter and 29% more in a warmer winter. households that heat primarily with electricity will spend 6% more-15% more in a colder winter and 4% more in a warmer winter. households that heat primarily with natural gas will spend 30% more than they spent last winter on average-50% more if the winter is 10% colder-than-average and 22% more if the winter is 10% warmer-than-average. We expect that the nearly half of U.S.We expect that households across the United States will spend more on energy this winter compared with the past several winters because of these higher energy prices and because we assume a slightly colder winter than last year in much of the United States.Įven when we vary weather expectations, we expect the increase in energy prices as the United States returns to economic growth to mean higher residential energy bills this winter: The high prices follow changes to energy supply and demand patterns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As we head into the winter of 2021–22, retail prices for energy are at or near multiyear highs in the United States.
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